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Summary of the Multi-residential Investment Market


MARKET VELOCITY

During the various quarters, it can be observed that the market experienced a peak in funding of $22.6 billion in October 2021. This significant increase is, among other things, linked to the decrease in interest rates. In April 2021, the average interest rate was 1.77%, which helped stimulate the volume of funding. It should be noted that during this period, it usually took 4 to 6 months before disbursement, hence the approximately 6-month lag to reflect the interest rates used in the analysis.

Subsequently, there is an increase in interest rates, which leads to a decrease in the volume of funding a few months later. This decrease is particularly pronounced between the second quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2022. Finally, the curve stabilizes to reach funding of $9.4 billion with an average rate of 4.62% for the month of November.

MARKET APPRECIATION

When analyzing the variation in the cost per unit over the past 12 months, it is fair to say that the market has experienced depreciation throughout the province, with a few exceptions. However, it is relevant to compare the current state of the market to that of 4 years ago to obtain a more in-depth analysis of the various indicators.

Firstly, it is worth noting that the cost per unit has depreciated by 2.82% throughout the province. In October 2023, the cost per unit stands at $138,000, compared to $142,000 in October 2022. However, if we take the same cost per unit of October 2023, which is $138,000, and compare it to October 2019, 4 years ago, we see an increase of 41%. In October 2019, the average cost per unit for all buildings with 5 units or more was $98,000.

It is interesting to highlight the significant breakthrough observed in the Sherbrooke region, where the cost per unit increased from $64,000 to $120,000, an 88% increase over a 4-year period. Moreover, a significant increase is also observed for the Island of Montreal. Between 2019 and 2023, the cost per unit (CPU) has increased by 52%, despite a negative variation of -5% over the past 12 months.

NET PROFITABILITY

The statistical data from 2019 to October 2023 reveals significant variations in the overall capitalization rate across the province of Quebec. Unlike previous years, the capitalization rate ranges from 4.5% to 5%.

In the Quebec City region, the cap rate in October 2023 is 4,8.%, experiencing an 6% increase compared to 2022 and a decrease of 12% since 2019. As for Gatineau, we observe similar activity for the period from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2023. The cap rate in October 2023 reaches 4.5%, registering a positive increase of 15% compared to 2022. However, it has experienced a decrease of 22% since 2019.